#Somalia: The Criminal motives Behind the Car-Bombing of Ahm...

#Somalia: The Criminal motives Behind the Car-Bombing of Ahm...: If you follow  with keen interest the Murky Somali Politics-an interconnections of Jihadist groups  , Business cartels/Organized crimes/Dru...

The Criminal motives Behind the Car-Bombing of Ahmed Madobe in Kismayo,Somalia.

If you follow  with keen interest the Murky Somali Politics-an interconnections of Jihadist groups  , Business cartels/Organized crimes/Drug-cartels  and Ethiopian intelligence manipulation,plots- you will be puzzled even at the latest assassination attempt on the convoy of Mr. Ahmed Madobe by a suicide car- bomb in the middle of Kismayo town last Thursday Sept 12 /2013  . On 27 August 2013 , before the attempt, there has been  a political deal in Addis-Ababa in which ,strangely the Ethiopian government is guarantor, and  Mr. Ahmed Madobe was recognized by the Somali federal government  as Leader and chairman ( of the executive,legislative and judiciary,Security) of the Jubba administration made of lower Jubba,middle Jubba and Gedo regions. The Somali government got in exchange to be the "sole representative of Somali sovereignty and Nation-State".It was a biased deal which has not taken into account the will of the people of the regions and was not  even made in good faith by the Ethiopians which were directing the whole saga.Also  they were diplomatically told that the Somali government will never accept Subdivision and they have to change their Plans by the international community.Why you would ask? The main reason being that the Ethiopians-Tigre Elites and some of the  Somali-Kenyan establishment,Kenyan Business tycoons  were allied with some groups who were representing Big Oil companies  like Statoil of Norway represented by a former PM and Total oil which was represented by a former Minister of defence,Clan Communities  in this political kaleidoscope of this regions  and  were advocating for an Independent and Sovereign Somali regional state in Jubba regions in a Confederate Somali State.This  new  deal makes Jubba regions Part and Parcel of Somalia but gives exorbitant powers to Mr. Madobe as Leader.This was not good for this groups and they had their own game plans which were are now being  executed by the Ethiopian Intelligence using Al-Shabaab in this car-bombing. First they have putted  in the deal this exorbitant powers of the Leader must not be changed in following negotiations and it must be intact. Secondly they wont " a political and security crisis" in which Mr. Ahmed Madobe will accept their own game- plan and will not accept any negotiation to bring in more clans -communities in the administration  and security services. That is the reason the car- bomb by Al-shabaab was organized by the Ethiopian Intelligence community. My theory has always been that the Ethiopians had contacts within the Al-Shabaab of Ahmed Godane and the Salafist Business cartels which are linked with Al-Shabaab.  Ahnmed Madobe was transported from the airport in a armoured vehicle made of steel  by Amisom while his staff and others travelled in his own car-convoy.The man-Ahmed Madob- will be made to believe in this  pre-planned operation  and accept all the suggestions,game plans  of the Ethiopian intelligence and the Hawks in the Somali clans community,representatives of Oil companies who are against any agreement unless its the recognition of a new sovereign state in South of Somalia.The other motivation  at work its the Ethiopians  would like as stated in the Kampala communique only the Amisom African armies to be stationed in Kismayo without the Re-hatting to UN blue helmets. Therefore with this bombing any UN intervention/deployment  would be scared. More to that at Art. 33 of the Kampala Communique its approved that Amisom and" the Chiefs of Staff of Ethiopia" within the framework of "Amisom Military operations.........to work out the modalities and development of an Amisom Multinational force to deployed to Kismayo". We can see  Ethiopians are back in the security issues and my opinion is they are  against any Multinational force be it African or UN multinational force.Their game plan is to be involved directly in the security issues of the Jubba regions now with  a UN mandate to make legitimate their own security game-plans.With this car-bombing they are telling the world that the place is so dangerous that  they are the Only state who can afford and capable to fight against this dangerous extremism group of Al-Shabaab. All  lies made to confuse and scare the Intentional community and even the Somali government which they hold hostage thanks to IGAD Organization and Amisom Armies. From the timing of the Operation the  car-bomb,the detailed execution,the knowledge of the arrival of Ahmed Madobe,the exact car  to bomb all makes this operation being -pre-planned by the Ethiopians but executed by Al-Shabaab.If you ask me how its possible this Unholy alliance ? First I will direct you to read some of my blogs like " History of the alliance between the Somali Al-Ittixad movement and the Ethiopians" going back to the 80". and other more recent in which I spoke in detail about the strategic  importance for Ethiopia and its backers -China,France, Iran,Italy- of the Jubba regions. The other Scenario behind this car- bombing , is one in which the Salafist business cartels/Drug-Cartels who were using the port of Kismayo together with Al-Shabaab have seen endangered their interests of exporting charcoal to the  Arab Gulf states in which al-Shabaab and this Salafist cartels were making enormous profits in tandem with the Ras-Kamboni Militia of Ahmed Madobe(  Please read last UN report  on Somalia) and importing Heroin from Afghanistan and Pakistan in which they  were re-exporting using Somali Drug-cartels active in Somalia  to Europa,US via the great Horn of Africa countries. This two criminal activities are in danger to be stopped if the agreement/ deal reached in Addis-Ababa came into effect after six months and the Somali government stops the charcoal export and brings its owns Staff and security to the airport and  Kismayo port..Al-Shabaab and the Salafist Business Cartels/Dug-cartels  will loose enormous amounts of millions of Dollars therefore its most likely they have decided to have this car-bombing to scare any involvement which will change the Status Quo. The Third option is Al-Shabaab itself  has seen a window of opportunity in the opposition of this agreement by the majority of clan-communities of the regions and with this car bombing show them their power and capacity  and tell them  that the only way they can get the resources of the regions is to ally themselves with AL-Shabaab-Al-Qaeda. All this options- scenarios are interlinked and have as a base the main alliance of the Salafist Business cartels/Organized crimes groups  and "The Ethiopian intelligence". Al-Shabaab one time is "tool" other time protagonist but never its missing its connections with the Salafist groups/Organized crimes of all over Somalia.Wait and see.

#Somalia: AMISOM,Salfist Cartels,Ethiopia-IGAD All in One.

#Somalia: AMISOM,Salfist Cartels,Ethiopia-IGAD All in One.: There is a Meeting going on at this time at the compound of the Presidency which is the main office of the president and almost all mi...

AMISOM,Salfist Cartels,Ethiopia-IGAD All in One.




There is a Meeting going on at this time at the compound of the Presidency which is the main office of the president and almost all ministers present on what we call "Radical Religious Extremism” in Somalia.. At 500 hundred meters from the meeting place Al-Shabaab explodes this morning ( Saturday 07/09/2013)  a deadly Bomb which kills at least 15 "citizens”. I think the President and his Prime Minister, Ministers must make a honest analysis of the situation and accept the facts that they cannot fight Al-Shabaab without the assistance/cooperation  of Somali citizens and not  with "security services" controlled by Ethiopians-IGAD and sympathizers of Religious Fundamentalism-Extremism. At the meeting live on Somali TVs( even in Nairobi,Eastleigh) were articulate religious arguments by Sheicks, so-called Salafist politicians ,religious scholars, Clan Elders,  who were blaming only "youngsters and few misguided individuals"  for the extremism which have made Somalia "Safe Haven" to Terrorist and Organized crimes/Drug-cartels. There were not any mention of the Structural and Institutional systems which produce, promote, and their supportive Business Cartels companies. The Madrasas , schools, Colleges which have produced hundreds and hundreds of young Somalis ready to be used by terrorist or assist them and are still training Somali youngsters with Curriculums not prepared or supervised, approved by Somali federal government..There were not any mention of the alliance between this groups the Extremist and the Ethiopia-IGAD group who would like to have a week Somali state which must always rely on the assistance and support of the AMISOM armies. President Hassan Sheick, His Prime Minister  and the real friends of Somalia( the US ,EU, Turkey, UK, Arab Nations) must go back to the  drawing board and make clear cut policies to have a clean-security services (armies, police, intelligence) from the infiltration of the Extremist and which can stand for the National Public Interest of Somalia. Why not recruit the Ahlu-Sunna waljameca groups ( not those  allied to Ethiopia?) which are the majority of Somalis and are against this extremist? Why not have a clear policy on  the Somali National federal Agenda and tell the neighboring Nations that a Somalia which is the Save haven of Terror and Organized crimes/Drug-cartels is against the wishes of the Somali people-citizens and cannot be tolerated by Somalis and the international community? To do all this things its needed the intervention and stationing in Somalia of professional soldiers from a Muslim country like Turkey as advisers and mentors  together with the Americans and the Europeans trainers for the Somali security services (Police, Army, Intelligence).The Somali Salafist Business Cartels/Organized Crimes must came to realize that they alliance with Amisom and Ethiopia is unsustainable and could not be implemented. They are the ones who are giving Al-shahaab the support base and using it as "Tool" to destabilize Somalia till they reach their goal to subdivide Somalia in Clan-Enclaves and control its national resources like OIL and GAS
with their ally Ethiopia-IGAD countries. They need a week Somali state which is corrupt, mismanaged( till know there is not even a national tax code or a any taxation paid by this groups who own the entire Somali economy) ,which do not have any economic public sector even health and education must be under their control as its now. The real friends of Somalia must have a concerted plan for Somalia. The honest elites cannot have a voice and the Somali commoner is not consulted. Only so-called clan advocates and Salafist Business Cartels have the capacity to influence and direct the Somali policies. Wait and see.

#Somalia: VISION 2016: PRINCIPLES AND RECOMMENDATIONS.( By S...

#Somalia: VISION 2016: PRINCIPLES AND RECOMMENDATIONS.( By S...: VISION 2016: PRINCIPLES AND  RECOMMENDATIONS.                   Sept.2-6-2013-Mogadishu Somalia. Preamble: The Vision 2016 Confe...

VISION 2016: PRINCIPLES AND RECOMMENDATIONS.( By Somali government Conference)

VISION 2016: PRINCIPLES AND RECOMMENDATIONS.
                  Sept.2-6-2013-Mogadishu Somalia.

Preamble:
The Vision 2016 Conference (hereinafter referred to as "the Conference") was convened by the
President of the Federal Republic of Somalia, His Excellency, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud in
Mogadishu from 2-6 September 2013 in which His Excellency called for the first of many national dialogues on the transition towards democratic legitimacy.
The conference delegates deliberated the following thematic issues
·   Constitutional Development: Review, oversight, and implementation ·   Options on Models of Federalism
·   Reform and Good Governance
·   The Electoral Process and Party Politics
·   Political Outreach, Public Engagement, Reconciliation, and Transitional Justice
The objective of the Conference was to advance the political process and to solicit the opinions of
the Somali people including members of parliament, regional authorities, civil society groups and
experts, as well as members of the diaspora to ensure the constitutional review and implementation
process, together with the process of transitioning to democratic legitimacy, is Somali-owned.
The Conference was officially opened by the President of the Federal Republic of Somalia, His
Excellency, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud who welcomed the conference delegates, thanked them for
responding to his Excellency's call for national dialogue on political processes and requested them
to offer concrete proposals and recommendations that can be translated into policies that will
contribute towards the review and implementation of the Provisional Constitution, the transition to
democratic legitimacy, and the finalization of the Constitution by way of referendum.
The Conference recognized that the road map laid out in the Provisional Constitution provides concrete steps towards these objectives.
The Conference recalls the priorities outlined in the New Deal Compact for Somalia, which include advancing inclusive political dialogue, finalizing and adopting the Federal Constitution by
December 2015, and preparing for and holding credible elections by 2016.
The Conference expressed concern that the government is behind on important political milestones. The Conference acknowledges that there are some areas of textual ambiguity in the Provisional Constitution that need to reviewed and revised.
The Conference, therefore, adopts the following core principles:
·   A Somali-owned, inclusive, and transparent political process, led by the Somali Federal
     
Government and consistent with the Provisional Constitution.
·   A rigorous, spirited review process of the Provisional Constitution gaining public legitimacy
     
through a referendum.
·   A federal political system that brings government closer to the people, and safeguards unity
     
and stability.
·   Free and fair electoral processes based on one person, one vote.
·   A commitment to, and the promotion of, integrity and good governance.
·   A comprehensive reconciliation process that brings about national cohesion and integration.

1






Recommendations
1. Priorities for review and Implementation of the Constitution
The Conference agrees:
·   There is a sense of urgency in the review and implementation of the Provisional Constitution.
      
The Conference therefore recommends:
·The establishment of the constitutionally mandated Constitution Review and
     
Implementation Commission within 60 days.
·   The establishment of the constitutionally mandated Constitutional Court within 90 days. ·   The establishment of all other institutions necessary to review and implement the
     
Constitution within 90 days.
·   That the government ensures the independence, integrity, and credibility of the
     
constitutionally mandated commissions.
·   That the government, in establishing these commissions, shall appoint commissioners with
     
competence, integrity, and diversity.
·   That the government develop a communication strategy on the constitutional process and
     
launches a comprehensive civic education campaign.
·   That the government ensures the process to be participatory, involving civil society, and
     
owned by the Somali people.
2. Models of Federalism and Resource Sharing
The Conference agrees:
·   That a federal system shall bring government closer to the people. The Conference therefore recommends:
·   That the government shall establish the Boundaries and Federations Commission as directed
     
by the Provisional Constitution within 60 days.
·   That Federal units shall be based on economic viability, demographic diversity, and
geographic integrity in line with the framework of the Provisional Constitution.
·   That the Somali Federal Government should take leadership of the process and launch a
     
civic education campaign.
3. The Electoral Process and Party Politics
The Conference agrees:
·   That the government shall create an enabling environment for multi-party politics. The Conference therefore recommends:
·   That the government should establish the Independent Electoral Commission within 6
     
months.
·   That the Political Party Law shall be passed within one year.
·   That the government shall launch civic education on the electoral process.


2





·   That political parties shall have a national character, and shall not be based on clan, hate
     
and/or violent extremism.
·   That the House of the People shall pass laws regulating campaign financing based on
     
accountability and transparency.
·   That  the international community shall provide technical, political and financial support to
     
the proposed electoral processes.
·   That contingency plans shall be agreed upon if one person one vote elections are not
     
possible in 2016.
4. Reform and Good Governance
The Conference agrees:
·   That the government shall promote a culture of integrity, transparency, and accountability. The Conference therefore recommends:
·   The establishment of an Anti-Corruption Commission as directed by the Provisional
     
Constitution within 90 days.
·   The establishment of a National Office of Ombudsman as directed by the Provisional
     
Constitution within 90 days.
·   The establishment of a National Human Rights Commission within 90 days.
·   The establishment of a National Civil Service Commission within six months.
·   The establishment of a National Archive to serve as a repository of information for
     
government documentation within one year.
5. Political Outreach, Public Engagement, Reconciliation and Transitional Justice
The Conference agrees:
·   That the government shall initiate a comprehensive reconciliation process that brings about
     
national cohesion and integration.
The Conference therefore recommends:
·   That the government shall engage in a dialogue with opposition groups.
·   That the government shall reach out to, and open a constructive dialogue with regional
     
administrations.
·   That the government shall continue talks with Somaliland.
·   That the government shall work towards empowering traditional elders in their role as
     
peacemakers.
·   That the government shall institutionalize gender equality and the representation of
     
minorities in all government institutions.
·   That the government shall establish a Truth and Reconciliation Commission, as stipulated in
     
the Provisional Constitution, within six months.
·   That the government shall establish a Land and Property Commission within six months.
Finally the conference agrees:
·   That the government shall produce a comprehensive and realistic work plan for the
     
implementation of the above recommendations within 30 days.

3





·   That the House of the People shall hold the government accountable to the implementation
     
of the work plan.



Adopted in Mogadishu on Friday - (06/09/2013)





#Somalia: The Addis-Abeba Agreement: The Beginning of a Co...

#Somalia: The Addis-Abeba Agreement: The Beginning of a Co...: Introduction:         For a very long time everybody who is involved with Somali issues( including the US, EU, UK, Turkey, Arab nati...

The Addis-Abeba Agreement: The Beginning of a Confederate Somalia.(Part.1)


Introduction:

        For a very long time everybody who is involved with Somali issues( including the US, EU, UK, Turkey, Arab nations)the international community was wondering if the southern Regions of Somalia called  Jubbaland or Jubba regions( Gedo,middle Jubba, South Jubba)  will (ever)settle and get Peace? Who will succeed in the Zero-Sum-Game to control the sovereignty, Institutions and National Resources like OIL and GAS of those regions of Somalia? The Somali National federal government or the Triad of Ethiopia-IGAD countries-UGANDA who have Armies in Kismayo,Jubba  regions of Somalia?
        For me and this following analysis the Clans who won and the others who lost within the contest of Leader-Making and institutions-making is not part of my argument. Why in the agreement the so-called Clan- Community- are made a “musical chair play” by making some Clans “ more equal than others”, with some Clans “more powerful” thanks to their alliance, closeness to the Tigre Regime of Ethiopia and IGAD countries Agenda to subdivide Somalia in a sovereign Confederation of Clan-Enclaves.
        Here I will try to analyze the articles of this agreement and its literal, legal and political interpretation as they are in the agreement signed in Addis-Ababa, Ethiopia. While taking some of articles of the agreement for a legal political/ analysis I will touch in the meantime on the different issue in the agreement vis-a- vis the Somali federal Constitution. On such issues like Security in the federal system, Laws regulating the financial management-taxation in general and regional state, Rule of law in the constitution and  in this agreement, federalism in general(What the Somali communities wont and the Ethiopia-IGAD-Uganda Agenda). What are the norms to be applied in the agreement in running the Trade, Land ownership including agriculture, Education, Health, Public utilities like water and electricity of the regions? What are the powers of the regional state Parliament? Who will legislate these powers? The federal government or will be made by this new authority? Who will allocate the quotas-members of the parliament for each Clan-community-constituency? What are the powers of the executive? Who will legislate it? Who will appoint the Judges and what will be the Organization of the Judiciary? What will be the laws to be administered like the Penal Code, Civil Code, administrative Laws etc. of the Somali Federal Republic or we are going to have a Salafi interpretation as a Legal system? At the end I will try to answer were we are going if this agreement is implemented as its now on the issues of Institution- Building for regional states in a devolved federal system.

The Preamble of the Agreement:
        I will not comment/analyze each one of the preamble paragraphs but the most important without quoting them another time.
The Jubba delegation mentioned in this paragraph was only made up of the Ras-Kamboni Clan-Militia groups who are the self-declared rulers of Kismayo-Lower Jubba region, from the middle last year thanks to their Close alliance with Ethiopia and Amisom Armies with which they fought against Al-Shabaab. Therefore from the beginning the talks were biased and not representative of all the Clans- communities of the three Regions (Lower Jubba, Middle Jubba and Gedo region). Secondly the Somali federal government cannot be part of any agreement in which Somali Clan- communities are involved as they were from different nationalities of different countries in a third country. If the issue is reconciliation, Institution-making it must be made on Somali national territory with mediation made by Somali elders from every Clan-community and the Somali state which is the sole sovereign representative of these communities.
        The principles of this meeting were those in the Communiqué of the meeting of IGAD heads of state adopted at its extraordinary summit on 24th May 2013 held in Addis-Abeba,Ethiopia.From here we can see how the Tigre-Ethiopian Ruling elites see Somali issues: different nationalities which needs to be mediated  but not as we see ourselves as One Somali Community. The first of the principles is “Leadership of the government of the Republic of Somalia in the process”. As I wrote before in my comment analysis of the Kampala Communiqué I wonder Why the Somalis have to be ”given” the authority to lead the affairs of their own Country? Why not say “ownership” of the process? This means the so-called Somali federal government has accepted other regional sovereign powers to “dictate” to it their “political agenda “without the Consent of Somali Parliament and the Somali people-citizens. The second of the principles is “Respect of the Provisional constitution of the federal Republic of Somalia”. Why “Respect” ?The Somali federal government is the only authority constitutionally in charge of the implementation and enforcement of all Somali laws including the Somali  provisional constitution. Why not write as principle” Abide to the Somali Laws and federal organs’ of the provisional Constitution”? The other controversial principle is written as” All inclusive consultative process with the Peoples’ of Somalia”. We can see the real Agenda of the Ethiopians which are to divide the Somalis in different “Somali peoples” as they were from different nationalities with different Ethnic groups, Religion and Culture. Somalis are one “People” as is also stated in the Provisional Federal Constitution (art .1) and also One Ethnic group with one Religion Islam and One Somali culture. The Somali federal government by accepting this “False statements” on our Nationality is contravening the Pillars of the Somali federal Constitution and being made party to conspiracies to subdivide the Somali people-citizens in different Nationalities by making every Clan-Communities a New Ethnic group therefore to bring in the concept of “Self-determination of Peoples” in International Law sanctioned by the United Nations Charter. In that way the different Somali clan-communities living in different regions in the future can request for “secession” from the Republic of Somalia by being a different People- Nationality.  The last of the so-called principles is” fighting Al-Shabaab as the primary Focus of the Somali federal government, regional an international partners”. It’s almost a joke. The Somali federal government cannot have one focus and must have multiple agendas which the fight against Al-shabaab is one of the majors but not the only one. There is the issue of Nation-Institution-Building, fight against corruption and mismanagement, fight against cultural and religious extremism, Reconciliation and transitional justice, Institution building of the federal institutions like Army, Police, Intelligence, the economy, remaking of all Somali Laws, etc. For IGAD bringing this silly paragraph is to cover up the real issues facing our Somali Nation-State and in the meantime make the Agenda of the Jubba Regional State only to fight Al-Shabaab . In that way the agreement will not cover the real issues which we will see in the next pages.
(To be continued)

Why there is Endemic Sexual Violence in Somalia.

The Somali Elites Ruling Somalia must be ashamed of how  things are when it came to endemic Sexual violence. This violence stems first from the culture of Impunity( which till now has not been addressed in a  transitional justice Courts ) of the civil wars of 1991-2009 in which Clan-warlords allied to Ethiopia and Salafist-Warlords,Organized Salafist groups used young Somali men to kill and rape in the name of Clans conquest and Religious extremism. That criminal culture to Rape Women has became almost part of the young men upbringing woven together  with the extremist concept of women and the week are dispensable part of society. Those former Militia,young/Old men trained in Madrases on that misguided cultural beliefs are the officers of the Army,Police,Intelligence services and sometimes Salafist officers, Judges of the Somali Courts.Secondly the so-called Ruling business Elites/Cartels which is Salafist itself  do not like the participation of women in Society and in civil-political spheres.Therefore women must always feel in danger unless they stay at home and follow their misguided ideologies. Its part of the repressive culture brought by the Civil wars and the Salafist culture/Agenda in Somalia.Third is the issue of the State and its political officers,civil servants and its Institutions not seeing this as a National priority which must be brought in the front line issues like fighting Al-Shabaab,Corruption and National Institution Building.But all this institutions and officers cannot do anything unless from the pulpit of our Mosques there is campaign to fight against this rapist culture and the Sheiks( be the Sunni-Sufi Sunna al-Jameeca and the Sunni- Salafist) start strongly to Stand for the rights of women to participate freely in civil political affairs of society and the State and have a true Justice by stopping the Culture of Impunity. Wait and see.
 
http://www.hiiraan.com/news4/201...

#Somalia: WHY Dr abiy AHMED WENT TO MOGADISHU? FOR OIL & GAS...

#Somalia: WHY Dr abiy AHMED WENT TO MOGADISHU? FOR OIL & GAS... : INTRODUCTION:            On 16 June MR. Abiy  Ahmed PM of Ethiopia ...