Wednesday, March 7, 2018

#Somalia: NATIONAL "TRASFORMATIONAL LEADERSHIP" WITH A COMPR...

#Somalia: NATIONAL "TRASFORMATIONAL LEADERSHIP" WITH A COMPR...: Introduction:             This post is the continuation of the earlier post called " The presidency of Farmaajo: How things are and...

#Somalia: NATIONAL "TRASFORMATIONAL LEADERSHIP" WITH A COMPR...

#Somalia: NATIONAL "TRASFORMATIONAL LEADERSHIP" WITH A COMPR...: Introduction:             This post is the continuation of the earlier post called " The presidency of Farmaajo: How things are and...

NATIONAL "TRASFORMATIONAL LEADERSHIP" WITH A COMPREHENSIVE VISION / PROJECT.


Introduction:  
          This post is the continuation of the earlier post called " The presidency of Farmaajo: How things are and major issues". Here I write about the major issue of Tranformational Leadership needed to achieve change and prosperous, secure, democratic future for Somali Republic Nation-state in a Federal system.


Meaning of Trasformational Leadership.


                Never a Nation-State or peoples in the history of Mankind has ever changed its predicament, advanced, made progressive social changes, political and technological changes without a Transformational Leaderships at the "helm" of the Nation-State, communities which have a clear "vision" of its "role" in "history" and personal "legacy". Today Somali Republic is at a cross road: after years of clan based civil wars, some camouflaged as religious wars, after so called governments installed by Ethiopia in Somalia with the Salafist Business Cartels as allies and Endemic corruption/ Organized crimes as business as usual; we have came at a time when we need a National Transformational Leadership which Unites, brings change, rallies together all Clan communities, citizens of the Somali Republic and brings social, economic and political development for the Somali Republic Nation-State in a federal system. Before I go into detail on what is needed in Somali Republic-as I see it- let explain in a scholastic way what is Transformational Leadership. On Wikipedia.org its said:


  "Transformational leadership is a style of leadership where a leader works with subordinates to identify needed change, creating a vision to guide the change through inspiration, and executing the change in tandem with committed members of a group.[1] Transformational leadership serves to enhance the motivation, morale, and job performance of followers through a variety of mechanisms; these include connecting the follower's sense of identity and self to a project and to the collective identity of the organization; being a role model for followers in order to inspire them and to raise their interest in the project; challenging followers to take greater ownership for their work, and understanding the strengths and weaknesses of followers, allowing the leader to align followers with tasks that enhance their performance." Still from Wikipedia.org:                 "Transformational leaders look towards changing the future to inspire followers and accomplish goals, whereas transactional leaders seek to maintain the status quo, not aiming for progress." 

 The concept of transformational leadership was initially introduced by James V. Downton, the first to coin the term "Transformational leadership", a concept further developed by leadership expert and presidential biographer James MacGregor Burns. According to Burns, transformational leadership can be seen when "leaders and followers make each other advance to a higher level of morality and motivation."[3
Still from Wikipedia.org
"Transformational leaders are described to hold positive expectations for followers, believing that they can do their best. As a result, they inspire, empower, and stimulate followers to exceed normal levels of performance. Transformational leaders also focus on and care about followers and their personal needs and development.[7] Transformational leaders fit well in leading and working with complex work groups and organizations, where beyond seeking an inspirational leader to help guide them through an uncertain environment, followers are also challenged and feel empowered; this nurtures them into becoming loyal, high performers." Period.

          I relied the professional, scholastic and knowledge based of what we call Transformational Leadership. How we can apply this principles and political theory to our society and dysfunctional Somali political system? Did President #Farmaajo fits in this kind of Leadership style? Did the present Leadership part of the team of President Farmaajo can be Transformational Leaders? 
       The answers to this question are Yes if they promote National Agenda, Unity, change Clan-Enclaves cantonal subdivision of the Republic and make a real federal system, promote social justice, have government role in the economy on national resources exploitation, and promote government based on Rule of law. No if they cannot stop endemic corruption and cannot change Clan Enclaves subdivision, total control of the economy and education by Salafist Business Cartels. Yes president #Farmaajo has had a message and style based on the Unity of the Somali citizens and a project to bring change and better future to Somali Republic citizens from when he was PM. But the week point is there is not a planned " comprehensive vision/project" and the capacity of the Elites governing is mostly uneducated on governance issues, without any idealistic-Nationalistic thinking or are elites put there through so called election( in parliament) supported by foreign powers  and not representing the interests of the people citizens. Those who have the capacity and honesty to work for their Nation-State are in the minority in government, civil servants and security services. But in the last election the two chambers has been infused with elites who have National outlook and values and stand for the rights of Somali citizens from whatever Clan or sub clan. 

Historical Background 

               In the Somali history the pre-independence Political parties in the north and south and the National State as institutions were agents of Change or what we can call today Transformation Leadership institutions. After independence they established our modern legal system, the modern education system, the civil servants system and a private sectors including banks. The leaders of those independent parties were Transformational Leaders for a short time and lost their visions due to the ideological weakness of the political elites and reverted to Clan sectarianism for power grabbing/corruption. But mostly the neo-colonial state itself had a goal to preserve the interests of the former Colonial powers and not nurture democracy and Rule of Law.
 The Siad barre military regime used a so called populist socialist agenda and a -so-called scientific socialism which cannot be implemented in practice in a pastoral/nomadic society-  but brought social change in education,health, promotion of National culture- writing of Somali language and using it for education- and used the state machine forcefully to implement its policies abolishing  independent civil society groups and political parties except his own Socialist party and state controlled civil society organizations. But after the 77" war and from 80" reverted to Clan sectarianism  and become just a ruling elites who lost direction and had not any vision anymore. The regime left the Warsaw pact group alliance of the Soviet Union and never fully joined the Western alliance led by US.(today our ally are those who assist us to fight against the Jihadist and assist us with Nation building for a government based on the Rule of the Law, just society in a federal system). This is one of the reasons the West and East bloc’s stood aside or participated in the collapse economically and politically, security wise of the Siad barre regime and assisted the emergence of Ethiopia as regional sub colonizing power.  But unfortunately also become a power to be reckoned the Somali Salafist Movement which flexed its muscles from the 90" in the Somali Republic (they had a secret alliance with Ethiopian regimes from 80") while the ETHIOPIA-IGAD group supported warlords first and later Puppet leaders for regional Clan Enclaves political systems.

Clan Enclaves Sectarianism/ Salafist Jihadist Models.


         The Clan sectarianism of the last 30 years has made great inroads in our social, political and cultural thinking that we totally lost what we acquired in the 40 years before it. We lost the concept of civil society in Trade Unions, Farmers associations, Business associations, lawyers association( some revived from 90" by foreign NGOs but still localized as Clan Enclaves groups), political parties based on ideological National values, the  Nation-state( as a model for the country) as neutral institution between Clans and political competing ideas; the role of state security services as enforcer of Law and defender of National Borders, paying of taxes to service public service, all that has been lost. Having one Nation state to whom we are all citizens have been lost, we advocate a secession like Somaliland and a quasi-like confederate system by leaders of Puntland, Jubbaland and South West etc. Now days every aspect has to be based on Clan affiliation and clan loyalty and Somalis are sub divided in Clan Enclaves regional states as for jurisdiction. The mind set of Somalis has been changed all this years by following the role model of Clan Enclaves Leaders, Salafist Business Cartels to be greedy, corrupt and divisive. Only personal gain and Clan culture, Salafist model are emulated and seen to be best. Our beloved religion Islam has been  wrongly interpreted by Salafist Jihadist and made a so- called ideological tool to kill, oppress Somalis of the Republic and make Fatwa against anybody who oppose Salafist Jihadist Agenda and stands for a National state. The concept of Nation hood has been changed to make Somali citizens without any Nation state except so called Clan Enclave regions and our young men fighting for Jihadist in foreign Lands for so called "Caliphate"; while homeland is safe haven and controlled by Jihadist, Salafist Business Cartels, criminals and puppet Leaders of Clan Enclaves. 


National Trasformational Leadership with a "Comprehensive Vision/ Project". 
             Even Transformational Leadership must a have a vision for the country which tries to solve all its ills like Jihadism, Clan sectarianism and social, political and economic problems. First we a need a Leadership which can restore the trust of people-citizens in their rulers. The people/citizens must be convinced to sacrifice for a project in which they “believe” and which can "change" their livelihoods and the country will be changed for the better future for all. They must be convinced theoretically by explaining to them the “vision/project”  that will bring change and see that the Leaders are themselves sacrificing for the good of the Federal Nation State. We need politicians who are Role Models and are not Puppet Leaders to foreign powers, allied with Salafist groups and Leaders who are free from corruption and Clan Sectarianism. Nobody is perfect but at least we don’t need re-cycled so called politicians who are only servants to Salafist Business Cartels some even criminals using politics as cover. We need politicians and bureaucrats who promote government by Rule of Law and social justice, meritocracy for all people-citizens. We need a law after the next election-in 4 years’ time- where Somali politicians, bureaucrats, security services, Army officers, must carry Somali passports and  be Somali citizenship and therefore accountable to the citizens and Somali law. In the next constitution we must have a vision/project agreed by all Somali communities/citizens  as principles in the constitutional norms of the Federal Republic and also agreed by a Constituent assembly made by a National community Elders, civil society groups, parliamentarians of the two chambers before any referendum. The #Farmaajo government must spell to the Somali people-citizens how its sees this vision/project and have a dialogue, discussion about it with all Somali intellectuals and start in the Media a dialogue about how they see the next constitution. This diplomatic style of running the national affairs makes the enemies of Somali republic use always the media to influence negatively the people and divulge misinformation. After the trip to Puntland and Galmudug  the Somalis have convinced of the national Agenda of the government and that its promoting the National interest of the Somali federal Nation-State in an inclusive way.   













NATIONAL TRASFORMATIONAL LEADERSHIP WITH A COMPREHENSIVE VISION/ PROJECT.


Introduction:  
          This post is the continuation of the earlier post called " The presidency of Farmaajo: How things are and major issues". Here I write about the major issue of Tranformational Leadership needed to achieve change and prosperous, secure, democratic future for Somali Republic Nation-state in a Federal system.


Meaning of Trasformational Leadership.


                Never a Nation-State or peoples in the history of Mankind has ever changed its predicament, advanced, made progressive social changes, political and technological changes without a Transformational Leaderships at the "helm" of the Nation-State, communities which have a clear "vision" of its "role" in "history" and personal "legacy". Today Somali Republic is at a cross road: after years of clan based civil wars, some camouflaged as religious wars, after so called governments installed by Ethiopia in Somalia with the Salafist Business Cartels as allies and Endemic corruption/ Organized crimes as business as usual; we have came at a time when we need a National Transformational Leadership which Unites, brings change, rallies together all Clan communities, citizens of the Somali Republic and brings social, economic and political development for the Somali Republic Nation-State in a federal system. Before I go into detail on what is needed in Somali Republic-as I see it- let explain in a scholastic way what is Transformational Leadership. On Wikipedia.org its said:


  "Transformational leadership is a style of leadership where a leader works with subordinates to identify needed change, creating a vision to guide the change through inspiration, and executing the change in tandem with committed members of a group.[1] Transformational leadership serves to enhance the motivation, morale, and job performance of followers through a variety of mechanisms; these include connecting the follower's sense of identity and self to a project and to the collective identity of the organization; being a role model for followers in order to inspire them and to raise their interest in the project; challenging followers to take greater ownership for their work, and understanding the strengths and weaknesses of followers, allowing the leader to align followers with tasks that enhance their performance." Still from Wikipedia.org:                 "Transformational leaders look towards changing the future to inspire followers and accomplish goals, whereas transactional leaders seek to maintain the status quo, not aiming for progress." 

 The concept of transformational leadership was initially introduced by James V. Downton, the first to coin the term "Transformational leadership", a concept further developed by leadership expert and presidential biographer James MacGregor Burns. According to Burns, transformational leadership can be seen when "leaders and followers make each other advance to a higher level of morality and motivation."[3
Still from Wikipedia.org
"Transformational leaders are described to hold positive expectations for followers, believing that they can do their best. As a result, they inspire, empower, and stimulate followers to exceed normal levels of performance. Transformational leaders also focus on and care about followers and their personal needs and development.[7] Transformational leaders fit well in leading and working with complex work groups and organizations, where beyond seeking an inspirational leader to help guide them through an uncertain environment, followers are also challenged and feel empowered; this nurtures them into becoming loyal, high performers." Period.

          I relied the professional, scholastic and knowledge based of what we call Transformational Leadership. How we can apply this principles and political theory to our society and dysfunctional Somali political system? Did President #Farmaajo fits in this kind of Leadership style? Did the present Leadership part of the team of President Farmaajo can be Transformational Leaders? 
       The answers to this question are Yes if they promote National Agenda, Unity, change Clan-Enclaves cantonal subdivision of the Republic and make a real federal system, promote social justice, have government role in the economy on national resources exploitation, and promote government based on Rule of law. No if they cannot stop endemic corruption and cannot change Clan Enclaves subdivision, total control of the economy and education by Salafist Business Cartels. Yes president #Farmaajo has had a message and style based on the Unity of the Somali citizens and a project to bring change and better future to Somali Republic citizens from when he was PM. But the week point is there is not a planned " comprehensive vision/project" and the capacity of the Elites governing is mostly uneducated on governance issues, without any idealistic-Nationalistic thinking or are elites put there through so called election( in parliament) supported by foreign powers  and not representing the interests of the people citizens. Those who have the capacity and honesty to work for their Nation-State are in the minority in government, civil servants and security services. But in the last election the two chambers has been infused with elites who have National outlook and values and stand for the rights of Somali citizens from whatever Clan or sub clan. 

Historical Background 

               In the Somali history the pre-independence Political parties in the north and south and the National State as institutions were agents of Change or what we can call today Transformation Leadership institutions. After independence they established our modern legal system, the modern education system, the civil servants system and a private sectors including banks. The leaders of those independent parties were Transformational Leaders for a short time and lost their visions due to the ideological weakness of the political elites and reverted to Clan sectarianism for power grabbing/corruption. But mostly the neo-colonial state itself had a goal to preserve the interests of the former Colonial powers and not nurture democracy and Rule of Law.
 The Siad barre military regime used a so called populist socialist agenda and a -so-called scientific socialism which cannot be implemented in practice in a pastoral/nomadic society-  but brought social change in education,health, promotion of National culture- writing of Somali language and using it for education- and used the state machine forcefully to implement its policies abolishing  independent civil society groups and political parties except his own Socialist party and state controlled civil society organizations. But after the 77" war and from 80" reverted to Clan sectarianism  and become just a ruling elites who lost direction and had not any vision anymore. The regime left the Warsaw pact group alliance of the Soviet Union and never fully joined the Western alliance led by US.(today our ally are those who assist us to fight against the Jihadist and assist us with Nation building for a government based on the Rule of the Law, just society in a federal system). This is one of the reasons the West and East bloc’s stood aside or participated in the collapse economically and politically, security wise of the Siad barre regime and assisted the emergence of Ethiopia as regional sub colonizing power.  But unfortunately also become a power to be reckoned the Somali Salafist Movement which flexed its muscles from the 90" in the Somali Republic (they had a secret alliance with Ethiopian regimes from 80") while the ETHIOPIA-IGAD group supported warlords first and later Puppet leaders for regional Clan Enclaves political systems.

Clan Enclaves Sectarianism/ Salafist Jihadist Models.


         The Clan sectarianism of the last 30 years has made great inroads in our social, political and cultural thinking that we totally lost what we acquired in the 40 years before it. We lost the concept of civil society in Trade Unions, Farmers associations, Business associations, lawyers association( some revived from 90" by foreign NGOs but still localized as Clan Enclaves groups), political parties based on ideological National values, the  Nation-state( as a model for the country) as neutral institution between Clans and political competing ideas; the role of state security services as enforcer of Law and defender of National Borders, paying of taxes to service public service, all that has been lost. Having one Nation state to whom we are all citizens have been lost, we advocate a secession like Somaliland and a quasi-like confederate system by leaders of Puntland, Jubbaland and South West etc. Now days every aspect has to be based on Clan affiliation and clan loyalty and Somalis are sub divided in Clan Enclaves regional states as for jurisdiction. The mind set of Somalis has been changed all this years by following the role model of Clan Enclaves Leaders, Salafist Business Cartels to be greedy, corrupt and divisive. Only personal gain and Clan culture, Salafist model are emulated and seen to be best. Our beloved religion Islam has been  wrongly interpreted by Salafist Jihadist and made a so- called ideological tool to kill, oppress Somalis of the Republic and make Fatwa against anybody who oppose Salafist Jihadist Agenda and stands for a National state. The concept of Nation hood has been changed to make Somali citizens without any Nation state except so called Clan Enclave regions and our young men fighting for Jihadist in foreign Lands for so called "Caliphate"; while homeland is safe haven and controlled by Jihadist, Salafist Business Cartels, criminals and puppet Leaders of Clan Enclaves. 


National Trasformational Leadership with a "Comprehensive Vision/ Project". 
             Even Transformational Leadership must a have a vision for the country which tries to solve all its ills like Jihadism, Clan sectarianism and social, political and economic problems. First we a need a Leadership which can restore the trust of people-citizens in their rulers. The people/citizens must be convinced to sacrifice for a project in which they “believe” and which can "change" their livelihoods and the country will be changed for the better future for all. They must be convinced theoretically by explaining to them the “vision/project”  that will bring change and see that the Leaders are themselves sacrificing for the good of the Federal Nation state. We need politicians who are Role Models and are not Puppet Leaders to foreign powers, allied with Salafist groups and Leaders who are free from corruption and Clan Sectarianism. Nobody is perfect but at least we don’t need re-cycled so called politicians who are only servants to Salafist Business Cartels some even criminals using politics as cover. We need politicians and bureaucrats who promote government by rule of Law and social justice, meritocracy for all people-citizens. We need a law after the next election-in 4 years’ time- where Somali politicians, bureaucrats, security services, Army officers, must carry Somali passports and  be Somali citizenship and therefore accountable to the citizens and Somali law. In the next constitution we must have a vision/project agreed by all Somali communities/citizens  as principles in the constitutional norms of the Federal Republic and also agreed by a Constituent assembly made by a National community Elders, civil society groups, parliamentarians of the two chambers before any referendum. The #Farmaajo government must spell to the Somali people-citizens how its sees this vision/project and have a dialogue, discussion about it with all Somali intellectuals and start in the Media a dialogue about how they see the next constitution. This diplomatic style of running the national affairs makes the enemies of Somali republic use always the media to influence negatively the people and divulge misinformation. After the trip to Puntland and Galmudug  the Somalis have seen the national Agenda of the government and that its promoting the national interest of the Somali federal Nation-State in an inclusive way.   

















Wednesday, February 28, 2018

#Somalia: #Somalia: #HAILEMARIAM RESIGNATION,SALAFIST MOVEME...

#Somalia: #Somalia: #HAILEMARIAM RESIGNATION,SALAFIST MOVEME...: #Somalia: #HAILEMARIAM RESIGNATION,SALAFIST MOVEMENT AND THE... :  INTRODUCTION:                 In this post I will try to explain from...

#Somalia: #HAILEMARIAM RESIGNATION,SALAFIST MOVEMENT AND THE...

#Somalia: #HAILEMARIAM RESIGNATION,SALAFIST MOVEMENT AND THE...:  INTRODUCTION:                 In this post I will try to explain from the point of view of- a Somali from Somali Republic- if it can ...

#Somalia: #HAILEMARIAM RESIGNATION,SALAFIST MOVEMENT AND THE...

#Somalia: #HAILEMARIAM RESIGNATION,SALAFIST MOVEMENT AND THE...:  INTRODUCTION:                 In this post I will try to explain from the point of view of- a Somali from Somali Republic- if it can ...

Tuesday, February 27, 2018

#Somalia: #HAILEMARIAM RESIGNATION,SALAFIST MOVEMENT AND THE...

#Somalia: #HAILEMARIAM RESIGNATION,SALAFIST MOVEMENT AND THE...:  INTRODUCTION:                 In this post I will try to explain from the point of view of- a Somali from Somali Republic- if it can ...

#Somalia: #HAILEMARIAM RESIGNATION,SALAFIST MOVEMENT AND THE...

#Somalia: #HAILEMARIAM RESIGNATION,SALAFIST MOVEMENT AND THE...:  INTRODUCTION:                 In this post I will try to explain from the point of view of- a Somali from Somali Republic- if it can ...

#HAILEMARIAM RESIGNATION,SALAFIST MOVEMENT AND THE CALIPHATE OF THE HORN.....

 INTRODUCTION:

                In this post I will try to explain from the point of view of- a Somali from Somali Republic- if it can bring change to the Horn the resignation of Ethiopia PM on 15/Feb/2018 .What will it bring to the enduring Somali conflict? Will it bring change or will be business as usual? What about the Puppet Leaders/ ex-Warlords/ Salafist MPs/Organized Crimes/Drug Cartels using  their Clans and sub-clans who are allied to ETHIOPIA? What about the Salafist Business Cartels who had a strategic convergence with the Tigre regime of ETHIOPIA? What about the Salafist Jihadist-of #Alshabaab and #Dacesh- who have planned for Oromos part of their wars to have a Caliphate in Somalia for all Muslims of the Horn? Can the Tigre-TPLF/EPRDF- and new would be rulers regime will came to understand that Somali Republic cannot be sub colonized by ETHIOPIA ? I will give my take on this questions.( While I am writing this post things have not still settled in ETHIOPIA).

        HISTORICAL BACKGROUND of SOMALIA and ETHIOPIA   
        RELATIONSHIPS ( A short view.)
       
         -ETHIOPIA-

                 The Ethiopians/Abyssinian were invited to the Berlin Conference as a Christian Nation in Africa and was included in the Scramble for Africa planned and executed by the Europeans the following years in Africa.In Ethiopian schools that fact is overlooked.They portray themselves as freedom fighters for the African continent and anti colonialist.That is just part of the history and even other Africans states believe.The Abyssinian were given by the EUROPEANS territories in the Horn and expanded to control other National Ethnic groups after World War II which today makes the Federal Republic of ETHIOPIA.The States in Africa are not made of one ETHNIC group- like Somali Republic and other two African states- there fore could be called normal the formation and institutionalization of ETHIOPIA made by the Colonial powers like all the states of AFRICA. During that expansion and formation Ethiopia has become a multi-Ethnic Nation State were Christians, Muslims and Pagans lived side by side. But State Power/Security Institutions/Army and Economy were always in the hands of some ETHNIC groups like Amhara till 1974 and later of the Tigre from 1991.The coming to power of the TPLF/EPRDF of Meles Zenawi from 1991 was the beginning of the subdivision of Somali Republic in Clan Enclaves- like Somali-land, Punt-land, Jubba-land, Galmudug etc  with a power less so called federal government under the hegemony of the Tigre regime of ETHIOPIA and the control of every Somali Clan Enclaves economy by the Salafist Business Cartels. The presidency of #Farmaajo has started to change that state of affairs but we are just at the beginning.

 -SOMALIA-
        
        Somalis in the Horn had their Nation State and homeland in 1960.The two colonies of British Somaliland and Italian Somaliland were united in a National state called Somali Republic on  Jun 26/1960 and  1/July/1960. The Somali Nationalism of 50" 60" 70" was also based on the concept of "Greater Somalia" which included all the territories inhabited by Somalis in the Horn. The concept was enshrined in the constitution of the 1960 and the S.Y.L charter .Today that concept is obsolete and not viable and against the National Interest of the Somali Republic Nation-State.Here I am writing about a fact that some Somalis influenced by the Salafist Movement and those allied to ETHIOPIA are still trying to negate as we were still in the 60" 70". Somalis  live and are National-citizens in Ethiopia ,Kenya and Djibouti Republic and enjoy the constitutional rights accorded to all citizens of that countries.They are part and parcel of those Nation states as politicians,businesses people,army officers etc.Till recently the Commandant of the IGAD-AMISOM Army in Somalia under AU/UN was a Djibouti Army officers who is of Somali ethnic origin.
The ETHIOPIAN ambassador to Somali Republic is a Somali Ethnic from Somali region of ETHIOPIA but represents the Hegemonic- sub colonizing interest of ETHIOPIA.There are plenty of examples but this are enough to say things have changed and there is not any more what we call the "Greater Somalia"Agenda. But the Tigre -TPLF- has used that dream of the Somalis which where also the basis of the war of 1977 to convince the countries in the West, countries in the East, African Union,Asian Countries that Somalis were trying to change Colonial borders  and uses it as a means to control and subdivide Somali Republic.But also portrayed all Somalis as Salafist Jihadist while they were allied secretly with puppet Leaders  who use sub- clans, and with Somali Salafist Business Cartels, ex-Warlords/Clan Enclaves Leaders.( see my post "The alliance of ETHIOPIA with Al-Ittixad ( The Union)  Movement " in my blog archive of  December 2012.See also "Who owns Somalia? #Alshabaab or ETHIOPIA-IGAD" of 2012)

         The enduring Somali Conflict of Clan sectarianism- subdivision and Salafism  Movement Agenda. 

The Tigre-Ethiopian regime used the Clan Culture to subdivide, use and control warlords, Somali puppet Leaders and make them  rulers of Clan Enclaves.But from how things are going on in |ETHIOPIA  it will make harder for the Tigre/TPLF to use the sub-colonization of Somalia as a means to rally the different communities of ETHIOPIA and hide their economic exploitation,dictatorship inside their country.For Somalia it will become impossible in the near future to call the Consul of ETHIOPIA in Garowe to address the opening of the Puntland state region parliament as he were the colonial power.It will become  almost impossible to continue the habit to report to Addis Ababa every month about Somali issues to Tigre TPLF/EPRDF leaders by Somali  regional Puppet Leaders.It will become also impossible the selling of ammunition through  third parties by Tigre intelligence to #Alshabaab arranged by the Somali Salafist Business cartels. The ETHIOPIA regimes have had a connection with groups part of Somali Salafist movement which infiltrated the opposition groups later warlords/puppet leaders  -from 80'- and this is the main reason why never #Alshabaab has attacked ETHIOPIA except one time made up operation. The attacks inside Somalia apart those of 2006-7 are all made up specially in Bakol and Gedo regions. For the Tigre ruling Elites the #Alshabaab menace is a  motive to interfere continuously in Somali internal affairs and tell the whole world that they are against Salafist Jihadist in the Horn  while they have a secret alliance. The Salafist Movement of Somalia -Al-Ittixad Movement- has subdivided itself in different sub groups but the most powerful is the Salafist Business Cartels and the Salafist Jihadist of #Alshabaab and #Dacesh( IS). The Business cartels themselves are divided in sub groups. ( see my post " Who are the business people of Somalia" ). Some are allied to ETHIOPIA, others close to #Alshabaab and  some the big  Conglomerates have came to realize their interests is best served with the Somali Republic in a federal Nation state and for others the jury is still out there for whom they stand with.But none of them can say to other Salafist they have changed political outlook to save their capital and future.But all of them still dominate the Clan Enclaves economies while the Puppet Leaders of regional Clan Enclave are still under  ETHIOPIA.Just like ETHIOPIA the  Somali Salafist Business cartels are against one Nation State for the Somali Republic and that is the strategic convergence between them and Tigre TPLF/EPRDF.

        The  plan of Somali Salafist Jihadist to have a "Caliphate" in the Horn.

The Somalis Ethnic group in the Horn is the only tribe which has its own Nation-State with one language ,culture and Islam as its religion. This factors make the Somalis a "special" Ethnic group in Africa and Muslim world.The Ethiopians regime from the past and the Tigre have all planned for their economic/political reasons  to conquer and subjugate the Somali Republic.But also the Somali Salafist Movement has planned to have Somali Republic subdivided as Salafist Emirates and  base for their Agenda to expand to all regions of the Horn inhabited by Muslims and institutionalize a "Caliphate". The alliance of the Somali Salafist Business Cartels with ETHIOPIA is a tactical phase which the new dynamics of the OROMOS uprising I think have changed if not even before.The Somali Salafist Movement has always believed that the Oromos were their best ally and now there is a good chance that alliance will be consolidated and promoted to use the Oromos for their wars to have a Caliphate in the Horn.

                     CONCLUSION

                      If the TPLF/EPRDF continues with its politics to sub-colonize Somali Republic  as they have done all this years and they continue in the same time their oppressive policies inside ETHIOPIA that will assist the emergence/development and complete implementation of the "Caliphate" in the Horn in the long run.The Somali Salafist Jihadist are increasingly  loosing military ground and public-citizens/Clan loyalty within Somalis and they need new fronts where the people have grievances and are ripe to fight for their Jihadist ideology and assist them with armament,training and finance. The OROMOS fit in that category and are neighbors to the Somali Republic.Will the Tigre regime of TPLF understand that danger and accept a peaceful,democratic  federal Somali Republic under one Nation state? Will  they accept the Somalis to have one Nation-State which its National Army,Intelligence and Police with a National economy under a federal state? Will they accept a democratic Somalia where Rule of the Law is practiced  and there is participatory democracy? I don't think so unless they are convinced by the international community or see in practice  the Salafist Jihadist coming to ETHIOPIA. ( See my post " OIL and GAS mini CLAN -ENCLAVES and ETHIOPIA-IGAD Hegemony ")